WP3 - Towards Operational Earthquake Forecasting
WP Leader: Warner Marzocchi - INGV
The objectives are:
- To develop, calibrate and test time-dependent earthquake probability models. These models seamlessly bridge the gap between long-term hazard assessment and earthquake early warning, they are the basic input to time-dependent risk assessment and decisions support.
- To move from time-dependent earthquake forecast to time-dependent hazard models incorporating the most relevant uncertainties.
- To contribute to the international efforts of the Collaboratory on the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) by upgrading the EU CSEP Testing Center and by adding two additional CSEP testing regions (Iceland and Turkey).
- To contribute to consensus building on best practice in operational earthquake forecasting.
- To develop the technical ability and consensus for implementing operational earthquake forecasting for selected target applications.
- To lay the foundation for a sustainable European framework for addressing time-dependent earthquake probabilities.
Structure of the WP
Task 3.1: Models building, calibration and testing
Task 3.2: Building up a European framework that supports earthquake forecasting experiments
Task 3.3: Moving from earthquake probabilities to hazard models
Task 3.4: Implementing Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Best practice guidelines and consensus building